Twitter Updates for 2008-04-02
April 2, 2008 – 11:59 pm- @dcancel did you dump your curve for the iphone? #
- @fredwilson possible but unlikely - obviously take 280 #
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Twitter Updates for 2008-04-01
April 1, 2008 – 11:59 pm- @daveman692 surprised your laptop isn’t at sfo left my keys on a flt to sfo last month and amazingly ended up at sfo lost and found #
- good chat this afternoon with @kickstand about CTR’s and banner blindness and how to build ad businesses in a world where CTR’s = .1% #
- @bpm140 you are an addict #
- @scobleizer unfortunately the law is 21+ on the premise that’s it - lose liquor license let in your kid - easy choice for most places #
- @scobleizer here in WA it is if you have a pub/bar - restaurants yep - perhaps different in CA - but up here two types of licenses #
- @scobleizer i am sympathetic fwiw i tried to bring my baby into a sit down pub and wasn’t allowed dumbest thing ever #
- @davemc500hats are you officially an ego blogger now? ie. obsessing over techmeme rank
# - @scobleizer i hear ya - let’s see you can join military, vote, buy cigs and porn but heaven forbid if you have a drink at 18 #
- @davemc500hats the same rule applies to startups too (ie. if you work that hard, then it better be a home run) #
- @jspepper and i’m the republican of the group - drunk driving though isn’t a drinking age thing to me it’s a social issue (pre-MADD) #
- @davemc500hats what was the service you used to design GSP logo? (can’t recall) #
- @bpm140 a little nippy but all in all a nice seattle spring day #
- @heuge did you land a new gig? #
- @tedr good hanging with you last weekend - see you and steven in a couple weeks #
- off to the airport to pick up wife and kids from a week in NC with her parents #
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Twitter Updates for 2008-03-31
March 31, 2008 – 11:59 pm- back in seattle - the cats are happy to see me #
- @kickstand probably also too much time staring at computer screen #
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Twitter Updates for 2008-03-30
March 30, 2008 – 11:59 pm- @rafer forgot to mention it this morning - congrats to you and chasse on hitting year 1 - may you 2 have many, many more! #
- need to fine more seattle tech folks to follow on twitter #
- @samidh i sat next to the prod mgr at youtube responsible for the overlays at dinner on friday - it’s really their best idea right now #
- @kickstand more proof that for whatever reason the seattle tech/startup scene is not nearly as connected as bay area and no clue why not #
- @dcancel @rafer and I sure looked like awfully smart on Sat. given we’re been making that prediction for a while #
- Personal EVDO shootout - Sprint kicks Verizon’s butt - better, faster AND cheaper. After 30 days with both keeping Sprint #
- good article by alan blinder (former vice chairman of the fed) on way out of subprime mess http://snurl.com/22zoi #
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Glam - Proof Once Again that What Sounds to Good to be True Usually Is
March 30, 2008 – 10:30 amGlam sent out notice on Friday that it would stop paying their guaranteed flat rate for unsold inventory. For online ad industry insiders, Glam has always been looked at with an of eye of befuddlement. Glam’s business model which was basically to buy up remnant inventory from a network of publishers who overindexed women (meaning a higher percentage of women visited those sites vs. the average). Buying up remnant inventory has long been the play for ad networks, but what made Glam unique was that were essentially signing up to guaranteed contracts where they would pay essentially premium non-remnant rates for remnant inventory - essentially paying $2-4 CPM’s for inventory that most publishers would have been happy to sell for $.25 to $.50 CPM’s. It wouldn’t have been so bad except Glam was buying up all the remnant traffic at higher then market rates. To a publisher seeing their remnant value go from $.25 to $3 was something that sounded almost too to be true.
No one was really questioning Glam’s desire to brand their remnant ad network as the premium online channel/category for reaching women online offering access to important demo with the reach only networks can provide. What everyone was wondering was when the house of cards would collapse - you just can’t pay $3 for what everyone else was buying for $.25. Publishers (and I know a half dozen personally) were all waiting for the house to fall and Friday it did.
It’s hard to turn something that the market values at $.25 into something someone wants at $3. Glam has been trying and seems to have hit the same wall that publishers hit when selling direct - for whatever reason high quality sites with a decent brand and strong community often can sell 30% of their inventory at premium (essentially retail) rates and leaving the rest as remnant (wholesale rates). Glam’s publishers had it good for awhile, but as they say if it sounds to good to be true in the end it often is.
Twitter Updates for 2008-03-29
March 29, 2008 – 11:59 pm- @scobleizer really is a twiiter addict - just saw him tweaking on twitter at community next #
- hmmm big brother casting call next to community next should we all audition? #
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Twitter Updates for 2008-03-28
March 28, 2008 – 11:59 pm- @techcrunch with a handle like sawickipedia plus being a seattle startup guy who doesn’t envy the valley #
- good chat w/ @rafer and @orenmichels on accidental vs guided history last night #
- getting some work done over lunch at IHOP (that’s right breakfast anytime of the day rules) while in Hollywood #
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Twitter Updates for 2008-03-27
March 27, 2008 – 11:59 pm- lookery hits wired http://snurl.com/22q6k #
- of course cool folks like gregg from jibjab and @davemc500hats hit seattle while I’m on the road #
- does spot runner seem like they are executing bubble 1.0 style (crazy valuations, "big" name exec hires with crazy titles, too early)? #
- now in LA with @rafer #
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Twitter Updates for 2008-03-26
March 26, 2008 – 11:59 pm- finished the snap summit day in SF - great comment from jeremy liew: patience - this whole social media app phenomenom is only 9 months old #
- @bpm140 @toddsampson so true - blogging is hard to find time for when you’re doing cool things #
- firefox marketshare always overstated - its not how many installs it’s how much it’s used - IE still 80-90% of use http://snurl.com/22mpa #
- @techcrunch - that’s a big of a tease as can be (and at the same time hopefully something that never gets said about a startup of mine) #
- Insanity: $1M-3M to build a website? what is it 1999? $50-250k builds you an automated platform for all 800 domains http://snurl.com/22ot4 #
- @bpm140 welcome back to SF #
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dinner with surf canyon and the realities of getting software & toolbar installs
March 26, 2008 – 11:03 pmSurf Canyon is a startup focused on improving search results that a college friend of mine, Dave Hardtke, is chief scientist (despite my prior stated views on inflated startup titles I bit my tongue and didn’t but Dave’s chops). We had dinner tonite in SF in order to catch up socially and talk shop. This is Dave’s first startup so I’ve been more then open about sharing whatever experience and lessons I can. As Lee Lorenzen noted on a panel at this week’s Snap Summit conference and Dave’s coming to learn, startups represent a lifestyle as much as a career. It’s certainly a nutty way to make a living, but one where I couldn’t imagine doing anything else. Welcome aboard the start-up train Dave - I hope you enjoy it as much as I have and do.
Dinner tonite was actually the birthday dinner for Surf Canyon’s CEO - Mark Cramer (I was Dave’s rather poor second choice to his lovely wife who couldn’t make it). Mark’s friends were all in attendance and since Mark has been on the startup ride for a while was a chance to meet a bunch of other startup folks. I got a chance to meet an entirely new circle of startup folks.
One of the interesting points of the conversation when talking shop about Surf Canyon was talking about how they could get more downloads of their search plugin and toolbar. I spent a number of years in the toolbar space and have been surprised by how many questions I have been getting recently about my toolbar years especially from folks in the social networking space. So here’s my general take - in an increasingly web and browser dominated world - getting any user to install software is an increasingly difficult. Users have become wary of hidden risks and potentially harmful software coming from seemingly innocuous software. The adoption/conversion rates from web-based applications vs. downloads can be a factor of 3x difference if not more. Also web-based applications have the potential to be tied into social network platforms which can be very effective channels for incredibly cheap user acquisition.
At the same time, the toolbar market from a user perspective is highly saturated. Google is the dominant toolbar today and it’s hard to find virgin users who either don’t have a toolbar or are willing to replace what they already have. And the competition to reach those users is fierce and being fought be folks who are making a lot of money. Ask.com’s Smiley Central toolbar group pays $1.50 to $3 per install in part because of their Google ad syndication deal they can make $5 to 6 per install (at least that and likely even higher). So for new anyone looking to offer a toolbar as their primary business model - I usually offer a strong word of caution. Even if you have a better mouse trap, if you can’t pay for shelf space, then you might want to consider a different model. And case in point, the only “viral” toolbar from the last few years that was reasonably and widely successful has been Stumbleupon. Every else - even Google - can bring their war chests and buy up the market.
Now Surf Canyon has a real cool browser plug-in and a great product is a great place to start. I just hope that the competitive and financial realities of the toolbar market don’t prevent them from being a big success.
